面向未来的海面变化研究

长期以来以地质时期海面变化过程等理论性研究为主要方向的海面变化研究经过７０年代在观念、方法和资料积累方面的突破，自８０年代初期以来进入了以“面向未来”为基调的成熟发展的新阶段，出现了一大批关于未来海面变化幅度及其影响和对策的研究成果，形成了较为完整的研究体系。９０年代初以来的几年间，世界海面研究的活跃领域是地质历史时期（例如ＬＧＭ，５ｅ等阶段）的海面实况、极地冰原对气候变化的反应、海面控制原理、海面模型以及绝对海面的航天测量技术与应用等方面。这一情况在一定程度上体现了“预测热”之后的“冷思考”。中国海面变化研究近年来取得了令世人瞩目的迅速发展，今后应注意引进先进技术方法，加强学科间的交叉合作，发掘自身的优势，向纵深发展

FUTURE ORIENTED RESEARCH ON SEA LEVEL CHANGES

Sea level researchers focused mainly on the theoretic studies about the processes of sea level changes during the geological period for a long time, until they made a breakthrough in ideas, methods and data accumulation in 70s. In 80s there sprung up a lot of scientific achievements in the areas of future sea level rise as well as its impacts and countermeasures, and a comprehensive system on application research came into being. This situation indicates that the study of sea level changes developed into a future oriented new stage. Since early 90s, the active field of the study of sea level changes is as follows: the fact of sea level changes during the specified historic spell (LGM, 5e etc.), the response of polar ice sheet to climatic changes, the principle of sea level control, sea level models, space measurement of absolute sea level and its application. These changes suggest a rational thinking following the hot spot of sea level prediction before. Sea level studies in China have made great progress in the recent years. It is important for us to introduce advanced technology and method, strengthen multidiscipline cooperation, explore our own superiority, and deepen the research in future.