攀西地区月降水时序非线性特性分析

在介绍相空间重构理论的基础上, 以攀西地区4个站点47 a的月降水时间序列为例, 研究了该地月降水时间序列的非线性特性。首先, 运用定量的G-P关联维方法, 探讨了非线性分析的主要定量指标, 具体而言有, 饱和关联维数D2和柯尔莫哥诺夫熵, 计算表明攀西月降水时间序列具有一定的非线性混沌特性。其次, 结合定性的功率谱分析方法, 进一步验证了攀西月降水时序具有非线性特性。除此之外还应用Cao方法检验, 从而排除了月降水时序为随机序列的可能性。本文为进一步研究月降水时序数据的复杂性及其演化规律奠定了基础。 

Testing for Nonlinearity in Time Series of Monthly Precipitation in Panxi Region

Based upon the introduction of the phase space reconstruction, the nonlinearity of monthly precipitation time series in Panxi region is investigated by using the data of monthly precipitation time series for past 47 years.First the use of quantitative G-P correlation dimension method is described in detail.What is more, this theory is applied in investigating the method of searching for the main quantitative indexes.These parameters include the saturation correlation dimension D2 and Kolmogorov entropy.The results indicated that there is a nonlinear chaotic characteristic in monthly precipitation time series.Then the power spectrum of monthly rainfall time series analysis method is used to validate their nonlinear chaotic characteristic.Besides, the Cao method is applied to exclude the possibility that the precipitation time series are random.The research on nonlinear chaotic characteristics of monthly precipitation will provide the theory basis for further studying the complexity and evolutionary law of monthly precipitation time series.