Impact of CAMEX-3 data on the analysis and forecasts of Atlantic hurricanes

Summary In the past, various field experiments were conducted using special aircrafts to enhance the observational database of hurricanes. Dropwindsondes (or “dropsondes”) are generally deployed to collect additional observations in the vicinity of the hurricane center. In addition to dropsondes, during the Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3), which was conducted over the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico during August–September 1998, LASE was also used to measure vertical moisture profiles. Four hurricanes: Bonnie, Danielle, Earl and Georges were targeted during this campaign. This paper describes the resulting impact of CAMEX-3 data, especially the LASE moisture profile data, on the hurricane analysis and forecast. The data were analyzed using a spectral statistical interpolation technique and the forecasts were made using the FSUGCM at T126 resolution with 14 σ-vertical levels. Results indicate that the LASE data had a significant impact on the moisture analysis. The reanalysis was slightly drier away from the hurricane center and wetter close to the center. Spiraling bands, both dry and wet, of moisture were clearly seen for hurricane Danielle. The LASE data did not affect the wind analysis significantly, however when it was used along with dropsonde observations the hurricane intensity and its structure were well represented and the forecast track produced from the reanalyzed initial condition had less forecast errors. The LASE and dropsonde observations were in good agreement. Received February 27, 2001 Revised July 31, 2001