The application of fractal study in forecasting flood calamities in Wuzhou, Guangxi |
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| Authors: | Jiang Chang Liangjian Wang |
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| Affiliation: | (1) College of Land and Resources, Hunan Normal University, 410081 Changsha, P. R. China;(2) Institute of Economy, Hunan Financial and Economic College, 410079 Changsha, P. R. China |
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| Abstract: | As a kind of sudden and common natural disaster, flood is characterized by the temporal fraction. A date series of floods was established according to the catastrophic records in Wuzhou, Zhuang Autonomous Region of Gaungxi, P. R. China since 1949. By the means of the model of fractional brownian motion, we can imitate the temporal sequence of past and forecast the developing trend in future, on the basis of which, the R/S analysis was employed to calculate the temporal sequence, the ‘H’ exponent and function R(τ)/S(τ) were determined. It is anticipated that the next catastrophic flood in Wuzhou will happen in 1999. |
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| Keywords: | fractal theory fractional brownian motion model ' H ' exponent flood calamity |
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