冬小麦赤霉病流行程度长期预报模型

小麦赤霉病的发生流行程度主要由天气条件决定，而５００ｈＰａ大气环流因子是较好地表征天气形势和控制天气条件的物理量。利用最优化相关分析方法，分区挑选了与小麦赤霉病显著、稳定相关的５００ｈＰａ大气环流因子，在此基础上建立了冬小麦赤霉病流行程度长期预报环流模型。

The Long range Prediction Models of Winter Wheat Gibberellin Occurrence Extent

The occurence of winter wheat gibberellin mainly depends on the weather condition. The general circulation factors at 500hPa are the physical quantities that represent weather course of large area and the influntial weather conditions as well. Some factors of general circulation at 500hPa correlated with winter wheat gibberellin in significance and stability,were found out by optimum analysis for different regions in Jiangsu province. Finally the long range prediction models for influnce extent of winter wheat gibberellin were developed based on these factors.