膨胀土路基沉降的模糊可靠度

由于影响膨胀土路基沉降的诸多因素，如含水量、孔隙比、固结度等的不确定性和随机性，导致路基沉降安全的极限状态并非如“临界点”所定义的那样绝对明确。运用模糊数学的原理，在分析膨胀土路基沉降的安全性时，将极限状态规定为在“零”附近的一个不确定区间，即引入“模糊临界区间”和“模糊极限状态”，从而，提出模糊可靠度的概念。进一步地阐述了膨胀土路基沉降的模糊可靠度的分析方法和步骤，并针对具体工程实例进行了模糊可靠度的计算，结果表明：按强度和稳定性设计原则设计的膨胀土路基沉降的模糊失效概率可能较大。

Fuzzy reliability for settlement of expansive soil roadbed

The limit state for settlement of expansive soil roadbed isnt so absolutely definite as critical point since those factors, such as water content, void ratio and consolidation degree, are unstable and stochastic. Basing on the fuzzy mathematics theory, the paper prescribes the limit state as an incertitude section closing by zero when analyzing the reliability of expansive soil roadbed, introduces fuzzy critical section and fuzzy limit state, brings forward the conception fuzzy reliability, and expounds the method and processes for analyzing fuzzy reliability of expansive soil roadbed. Furthermore, the paper takes a typical expansive soil roadbed as example to calculate the fuzzy reliability of settlement. The result indicates that the fuzzy invalidation probability of exceeding allowable settlement may be a little big when expansive soil roadbed is designed according to intensity and stability principle.