黑河流域水资源动态变化及其趋势的灰色Markov链预测

根据有关水文气象台站的观测数据,对黑河流域水资源时空分布特征及变化规律进行了分析,并基于GM(1,1)模型和Markov链原理,提出了一个用于黑河流域的水资源变化趋势预测的灰色离散随机过程模型。结果表明,从1944年有观测记录以来的近60a时间里,以黑河干流为代表的黑河流域天然径流经历了几个长度不等的丰水段与枯水段,而目前正处于1996年开始第5个丰水段的下降段的最低点或自2000年开始的第6个枯水段的起始点。未来几年里,黑河流域天然水资源的变化总体上将呈现一种偏枯或平水偏枯的状态,但径流偏枯的幅度将不会很大。

Water Resources Change and Its Trends Forecasted by Grey Markov Chain in Heihe River Basin

The Heihe River,situated in the Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province,is the most representative inland river in the arid zone of Northwest China.The water resource of the basin mainly roots in precipitation and ice and snow melting-water in the Qilian Mountains area and it plays an important part in the development of society and economy of this area.Based on the observation data at the relational hydro-meteorological network,the space-time distribution characteristics and variation orderliness were analyzed.A Grey Markov Chain Model,which was used to forecast the dynamic trend of water resources in the Heihe River Basin,was presented according to the theory of GM(1,1) model and Markov chain.The results show that the natural runoff of the Heihe River has interphasely experienced the five low-flow and the five high-flow periods from 1944 to 1999.At present,it is at the lowest mark of the fifth high-flow period beginning from 1996 or the starting point of the sixth low-flow period beginning from 2000.The natural water resources of the entire Heihe River basin will present a state of under normal flow as a whole,but the decreasing extent of it will be quite finite.