断层活动性定量评定之现状与展望

随着活断层理论研究的深入和工程评价要求的提高，对断层活动性仅作定性评价，已不能满足重大工程选址和设计的要求，而必须走量化评定的道路。作者分析了断层活动性定量评定之现状，科学京、工程师们虽已做了一些有益的尝试和实践，但当前仍处在探索研究阶段，至今尚未找到一个能被普遍接受的断层活动性量化评定标准。作者对断层活动性量化评定之前景亦做了展望，并着重指出几个今后应特别予以注意的问题：１．明确断层活动性的概念含义；２．找到影响断层活动性大小的主要因素；３．加强断层活动年代测定研究；４．重视活断层的地震活动和地表破裂研究；５．用概率论方法定量评定断层活动性。

PRESENT CONDITION AND PROSPECTS OF QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT ON THE DEGREE OF FAULT ACTIVITIES

With the deepgoing of studies on active fault theory and the raise of engineering evalu ation require-ments,a qualitative evaluation made of the fault activitY can not meet the requlrements of the siting and design of major engineering projects,and so one must try to make quantitative evaluation.In this paper,the author analyzes the present condition of quantitative assessment of fault activities and points out that al-though scientists and engineers have tried and practised some valuable means,it remains in the stage of probing and research ,and so far standards of quantification assessment of fault activities ,which can be com-monly acceptable,have not been established yet.In the paper the author looks forward to the future of quantitative evaluation of fault activities,and points out emphatically several problems that require more attention from now on:1.defining the concep-tion and implication of activity of a fault;2.finding out the main factors which affect the degree of activi-ty of a fault 3.strengthening the study of age determination of fault activity;4.paying great attention to the study of the seismicity and the surface fracture of an active fault;5.quantitatively assessing the fault activiy with probabilistic metod.