| “配料法”用于广西桂东片持续性暴雨预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 欧坚莲,黎金水,刘国忠.“配料法”用于广西桂东片持续性暴雨预报[J].气象研究与应用,2011,32(2):21-25. |
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| 作者姓名： | 欧坚莲 黎金水 刘国忠 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 广西梧州市气象局,广西梧州,543002
2. 广西百色市气象局,广西百色,533500 |
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| 基金项目： | 2010年“广西5-8月区域分片持续性暴雨短期预报关键技术研究”项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 使用2000--2009年micaps资料，通过天气学原理结合统计学分类的方法，对桂东片持续性暴雨天气个例进行分型。运用概念模型分析法，建立分类型概念模型。利用“配料法”的思路，对概念模型及其物理量特征进行配料，选取环境场、水汽、抬升和不稳定为主要配料，通过对暴雨配料指标的组合判断，得出有、无暴雨的预报，依此建立桂东片...
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| 关 键 词： | 持续性暴雨 概念模型 配料法 预报流程 |
Ingredients-based Methodology for Forecasting Continuous Rainstorm in Eastern Guangxi |
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| Ou Jian-lian,Li Jin-shui,Liu Guo-zhong.Ingredients-based Methodology for Forecasting Continuous Rainstorm in Eastern Guangxi[J].Journal of Guangxi Meteorology,2011,32(2):21-25. |
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| Authors: | Ou Jian-lian Li Jin-shui Liu Guo-zhong |
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| Institution: | Ou Jian-lian1,Li Jin-shui2,Liu Guo-zhong3(1,2.Wuzhou Municipal Meteorological Service,Guangxi Wuzhou 543002,3.Baise Municipal Meteorologicl Service,Guangxi Baise 533500) |
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| Abstract: | Using micaps informations from 2000 to 2009, with synoptic statistical classification and ingredients-based methodology, selecting the elements of water vapor, instability energy, up other environmental meteorological factors as the main ingredients, vari |
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| Keywords: | continuous rainstorm conceptual model ingredients-based methodology forecast flow |
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