The Influence of Climatic Change on Price Fluctuations in Germany During the 16th Century Price Revolution

In our paper we analyze the influence of climatic changes on annual price fluctuations (harvest year) of agricultural products in Germany during the 16th century price revolution. The price series under analysis are from Nuremberg, Cologne, Augsburg, and Munich. The prices are compared with quarterly climatic indices for Germany, which cover the observation period 1500-1599. The main finding is that the length of the vegetation period is an important factor in determining grain price fluctuations. During the climatic deterioration in the 16th century, there is some evidence that the impact of climate (and therefore of supply fluctuations) on grain price fluctuations increases.