| 我国近百年气温的非趋势波动分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 江田汉.我国近百年气温的非趋势波动分析[J].气象科学,2004,24(2):199-204. |
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| 作者姓名： | 江田汉 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京大学环境科学系,北京,100871 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家气象中心自建项目ZK2 0 0 2ASZ 0 7资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 为研究我国近百年气温的长程相关规律，通过对我国近百年月平均温度序列的非趋势波动分析。初步得出以下几个结论：我国近百年气温存在内在的长程相关性；标度指数a≌0．66；尽管大于18a尺度区间的α与小于18a尺度区间的α有所不同，但可能由于所分析的温度序列长度受到限制，没有足够充分的理由认为18a是个交叉点。
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| 关 键 词： | 温度序列 气候变化 非趋势波动分析 长程相关性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2003/5/14 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年5月14日 |
DETRENDED FLUCTUATION ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY TEMPERATURE ANOMALY OVER CHINA DURING THE RECENT 100 YEARS |
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| Jiang Tianghan.DETRENDED FLUCTUATION ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY TEMPERATURE ANOMALY OVER CHINA DURING THE RECENT 100 YEARS[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2004,24(2):199-204. |
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| Authors: | Jiang Tianghan |
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| Institution: | Department of Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 10
0871 |
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| Abstract: | To study the specific law and the scale range of long-range correlation,series of average monthly anomaly over China from Jan. 1873 to Nov.1990 is analyzed with the detrended fluctuation analysis. The preliminary results show as follows. Firstly,there exists the long-range correlation in the average monthly temperature fluctuations. Secondly,the temperature fluctuations can be characterized by a long-range power-law correlation with an exponent =0.66.Thirdly,the scale of 18 years can not be regarded as a crossover for the limit of the length of the series,though the exponent at large scale of more than 18 years is different from that of less than 18 years. |
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| Keywords: | Temperature series Climatic change Detrended fluctuation analysis Long-range correlation |
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