| 四川地区月降水量的一种预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 熊燕飞,马振锋,王柏钧. 四川地区月降水量的一种预测模型[J]. 成都信息工程学院学报, 1992, 0(1) |
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| 作者姓名： | 熊燕飞 马振锋 王柏钧 |
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| 作者单位： | 成都中心气象台(熊燕飞)，成都气象学院(马振锋)，成都气象学院(王柏钧) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文对1960～1979年四川地区48个测站的月降水资料,在稳斜因子分析的基础上,用ARIMA(p,d,q)模型进行随机建模。时间序列分别来源于PROMAX斜旋转解的因子得分。因子得分序列的主周期由周期图和方差分析方法求出,-维ARI-MA(p,d,q)模型识别用Box-Jenkins方法进行。对1980年的月降水量预测结果表明,距平预报的年平均准确率为58.33％。
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| 关 键 词： | 统计天气预报 稳健因子分析 时间序列 因子得分 |
A FORECAST MODEL OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION IN SICHUAN REGION |
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| Xiang Yanfei Ma Zhenfeng Wang Baijun. A FORECAST MODEL OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION IN SICHUAN REGION[J]. Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology, 1992, 0(1) |
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| Authors: | Xiang Yanfei Ma Zhenfeng Wang Baijun |
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| Abstract: | Based on the robust factor analysis, using monthly precipitation data of,48 stations in 1960 -1979 in Sichuan, a stochastic model by an ARIMA(p,d,q) model is formulated in this paper. The multivariate time series are composed of factor scores of the ssolution from PROMAX, The major periods in the factor score series are also revealed by using the periodogram and variance analysis method. The model identification of ARIMA (p, d, q) ifor univariate variable is made by the Box-Jenkins method. Forecast results of monthly precipitation in the next year indicate that annual average accurate rate of anomaly forecast is 58. 3%. |
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| Keywords: | Statistical weather forecast Rolmst factor analysis Time series Factor score. |
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