黑龙江省降水混沌识别及空间分布研究

为更好地研究降水时间序列的非线性特征,基于不同时间尺度0-1测试方法识别黑龙江省30个气象站1958~2011年降水时间序列的混沌特性。分别以三个不同时间尺度月系列、季系列、半年系列的渐进增长率中位值最小的北林站、漠河站、牡丹江站为代表说明黑龙江省各气象站均存在混沌特性,月系列和半年系列混沌特性较强,季系列混沌特性较弱。为研究全省范围内降水混沌特性空间分布规律,对各气象站K值进行克里金插值。空间分布结果表明,混沌特性在月降水系列呈现较为明显东西向的分带性,在季系列和半年序列并未呈现出明显的分带性;得出结论:不同时间尺度降水系列均产生混沌现象,混沌识别结果与气候类型、地形特征、人类活动特征相互支撑,为降水系统非线性特征提供一定参考。

Identification and Spatial Distribution for Chaos of Precipitation in Heilongjiang Province

To better study on the nonlinear characteristics of precipitation time series, using 0-1 test method to identify precipitation time series characteristics of chaos of the 30 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1958 to 2011. Three different time scale are month, season and half year, And the Beilin Station, Mohe Station and Mudanjiang Station have the smallest values, which indicates that all the stations exist chaotic characteristics within the scope of the province, the chaos characteristics of month series and half year series are stronger, and season series is smaller. To study the province within the scope of precipitation spatial distribution chaos characteristics, Kriging values for the K of each station were interpolated. The results show different time scales, the precipitation series all produced chaotic characteristics, which are consistent with climate types,topography features, human activities.