基于投影寻踪与可拓学方法的泥石流危险度评价

泥石流危险度评价是地质灾害评估与治理的一项重要内容。选取金沙江流域典型泥石流影响因子指标值作为原始数据，基于投影寻踪法与可拓学相结合的方法建立危险度评价模型，根据原始数据的结构特征搜索出最符合实际情况的投影方式，从而映射出最客观的综合数据特征值。并通过可拓学理论解决泥石流体系的模糊性、不确定性与泥石流危险度评价的客观性、确定性之间的矛盾，将评价因子与评价标准之间的从属关系拓展到因子与标准之间的距离，从而定量化地描述出研究区泥石流危险度的特征。

Debris Flow Risk Assessment by PPC and Extenics

Debris flow risk assessment is one of the most important part in geological disaster evaluation. The authors combine the projection pursuit cluster model（PPC） with extenics method to establish a new risk assessment model. Based on the structural characteristics of the raw data, the authors find out the best projection mode which can reflect the most objective and comprehensive eigenvalue. Extenics is used to resolve the contradiction between the uncertainty of mud-rock flow system and the certainty of the system, the relationship of factors and evaluation criteria is extended to the distances between factors and evaluation criteria, which describes the quantitative characteristics of debris flow risk.