A simple new shoreline change model

A simple new shoreline change model has been developed and calibrated/evaluated with several sets of high quality field data. The model is based upon the general observation that the shoreline tends to approach an equilibrium position exponentially with time when subjected to constant forcing. The model represents the shoreline response to cross-shore processes only and is extremely efficient, requiring only readily obtainable wave and water-level data as input. Shoreline changes are forced by changes in the local water surface elevation due to a combination of local tide, storm surge and wave-induced setup. The model contains three adjustable parameters, representing a baseline condition from which equilibrium shoreline displacements are calculated, and two rate constants, all of which are evaluated by minimizing the error between model hindcasts and several historical shoreline data sets. Several possible forms for the rate parameters, incorporating local wave and sediment properties, were considered and evaluated. At most sites, the model has proven successful in predicting large-scale shoreline response to local water level and wave forcing. The combination of model accuracy and efficiency, along with the minimal data required to drive the model, make it a potentially useful tool in many coastal engineering applications. As more high-quality shoreline, wave and water-level data sets become available, significant improvements can be made in the determination of the rate parameter governing the time scale of the beach response.