Numerical simulation of pyroclastic density currents on Campi Flegrei topography: a tool for statistical hazard estimation. |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, IRD, OPGC, Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France;2. Departamento de Vulcanología, Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, 04510 Mexico D.F., Mexico;1. Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, IRD, OPGC, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France;2. Université de Paris, Institut de physique du globe de Paris, CNRS, F-75005 Paris, France;1. Boise State University, Boise, ID, United States;2. Central Washington University, Ellensburg, WA, United States;3. The Open University, Milton Keynes, United Kingdom;4. Earth and Planetary Science Dept., University of California, Berkeley, United States |
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| Abstract: | We describe a numerical simulation of both concentrated and dilute gravity-driven pyroclastic flows on a digital topographic model of the Campi Flegrei volcanic field. Families of numerical flows are generated by sampling a multi-dimensional matrix of vent coordinates, flow properties and dynamical parameters within a wide range of values. Hazard maps are constructed from the data base of simulated flows, using a mixed deterministic–statistical approach. The set of probable vents covers the area of recent eruptions. Results show the key role of topography in controlling the flow dispersion. The maximum hazard appears to be the NE sector of the caldera. Flows in the eastern sector, including the city of Naples, are shown to be efficiently hindered by the Posillipo and Camaldoli hills at the caldera borders, thus reducing the hazard. The results represent the first physically based estimate of hazard from pyroclastic flows in this densely populated area, and can be used for civil defence purposes. |
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