Physical interpretation and mathematical simulation of ionospheric precursors of earthquakes at midlatitudes

The paper presents the results of studying anomalous variations in the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere as probable precursors of strong seismic events. The vertical drift of the F2 layer’s ionospheric plasma under the effect of seismically generated zonal electric field is considered as a likely reason for the observed variations in the TEC. An estimation of this drift effects is made by mathematical simulation utilizing the global numerical model of the Earth’s upper atmosphere (UAM). Midlatitude ionospheric effects were simulated. Two types of seismogenerated electric fields (dipole and monopole) were used with various magnitudes and spatial configurations. The derived results were compared with the TEC data of GPS observations from the IGS for the Kitira earthquake in southern Greece (January 8, 2006; M 6.8). It was shown that variations generated by additional sources of the dipole type are consistent with the observed data; monopole-type sources did not reproduce some typical peculiarities of these observations and systematically underestimated the deviation value.