Synoptic and meteorological conditions during extreme snow cover ablation events in the Great Lakes Basin

Snow cover ablation in the Great Lakes basin is a common and hydrologically important process during the cold season, contributing to a majority of the basin's runoff, and less frequent, extreme ablation events are highly impactful due to an increased flooding risk and warrant specific investigation. A brief climatology of extreme ablation events is presented, where extreme is considered within the top 5% of the distribution. Using synoptic classification techniques, individual weather patterns associated with extreme snow ablation in the Great Lakes basin are isolated. A single pattern deemed the most influential in generating extreme ablation events, southerly flow-1, is examined in detail, and three case studies are presented to determine the meteorological conditions and surface energy fluxes responsible for ablation. Over 75% of extreme events are associated with southerly flow patterns that predominantly ablate snow with sensible heat fluxes, while rain-on-snow patterns induce the remaining extreme events from 1980–2009. Type southerly flow-1 is responsible for 45% of the extreme events and is characterized by strong southerly advection of warm air into the basin, where sensible heat fluxes of 45–125 Wm⁻² are responsible for the majority of energy transfer into the snowpack. When compared with an average ablation event, an extreme ablation event for southerly flow-1 exhibits air temperatures, dew point temperatures, and wind speeds that are 3.8°C, 3.0°C, and 1.2 ms⁻¹ warmer and faster than an average event, indicating a greater potential for larger ablation.