新疆地表水资源对气候变化的响应初探

计算新疆三大区域地表水资源与气候的相关性,建立两者间的回归方程,进而探讨新疆地表水资源对气候变化的响应,得到以下几点主要结论:①新疆地表水资源对气候变化的响应具有明显的地域特点:北疆以对水文年降水的正响应为主;南疆以对5~9月温度的正响应为主,以对高山区前年的水文年降水的正响应为辅;东疆对水文年降水的正响应及5~9月温度的负响应并重,对降水的响应更重要些。②北疆:当北疆8站水文年平均降水偏多(或偏少)10%时,北疆地表水资源会偏多或偏少7.2%。③东疆:当沁城5~9月平均温度为多年平均值时,巴音布鲁克水文年降水变化±10%,东疆地表水资源会出现±5.4%的变化;当巴音布鲁克水文年降水为多年平均值时,沁城5~9月平均温度偏高(或偏低)1℃,东疆地表水资源会减少(或增多)8.3%。④南疆:当南疆4站5~9月平均温度为多年平均值时,塔什库尔干前年的水文年降水变化±10%,南疆地表水资源会出现±1.3%的变化;当塔什库尔干前年的水文年降水为多年平均值时,南疆4站5~9月平均温度偏高(或偏低)1℃,南疆地表水资源会增多(或减少)11.7%。

Probe into Response of Surface Water Resources to Climate Change in Xinjiang

In this paper,the correlation between surface water resources and climate for three large regions of Xinjiang was established to study the response of surface water resources to climate change.Conclusions are as follows:(1) The response of surface water resources to climate change obviously has regional features.In northern Xinjiang,positive response of surface water resources to precipitation of hydrological year is main;In southern Xinjiang,positive response of surface water resources to mean temperature from May to September is the first,but positive response to precipitation of the former hydrological year for high mountain area is the second;In eastern Xinjiang,surface water resources responded to hydrological precipitation positively and to mean temperature from May to September negatively,but response to precipitation is more important than that to temperature.(2) When mean precipitation of hydrological year for 8 stations in northern Xinjiang is more or less 10% than normal,the surface water resource is 7.2% more or less than normal.(3) When mean temperature from May to September is in normal for Qincheng meteorological station in eastern Xinjiang,and if precipitation of hydrological year change within 10% for Bayinbuluke meteorological station,the surface water resources for eastern Xinjiang will change by 5.4%;When precipitation is in normal for Bayinbuluke meteorological station,and if mean temperature from May to September for Qincheng meteorological station is 1℃ higher or lower than normal,the surface water resources for eastern Xinjiang will increase or decrease by 8.3%.(4) When mean temperature from May to September for four meteorological station in southern Xinjiang is in normal,and if precipitation of former hydrological year change within 10% for Tashikuergan meteorological station,the surface water resources for southern Xinjiang will change by 1.3%;When precipitation of former hydrological year is in normal,and if mean temperature from May to September for the four stations is 1℃ higher or lower than normal,the surface water resources for southern Xinjiang will increase or decrease by 11.7%.