中长期地震预测方案综合信度评价的层次分析法

由于存在各种复杂的不确定因素的影响，正确合理地评价地震观测结果的可信度，具有一定的难度。本文首先引入具有广泛应用途的层次分析法，并以华北北部为例，结合Ｄｅｌｐｈｉ专家咨询结果，给出了反映各个预测方案结果的可信度及具有满意一致性的相对重要性权系数。其结果可作为综合各种预测方案，确定该地区中长期地震危险区的参考依据。

The Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Making Use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process

This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium-and long-term earthquake prediction methods by making use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The criterion judgment matrices are formulated by the results of an expert questionnair known as the Delphi Method. A scale of relative preferences or priority weights are obtained. The quantitative weights might be applied in synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China Seismic Region.