十年尺度地震危险性概率预测方法的初步研究

在十年尺度（５—１０年）地震危险性预测中，需要处理众多的不确定因素。受这些不确定因素的约束，地震预测的结果必然带有相当的不确定性，因此应该用概率分析的方法进行预测。考虑地震发生的时间、空间和强度的非均匀性及相关特征和地震危险性长期背景（地质、地球物理场等因素）与地震发生前兆的概率结合，提出了十年尺度地震危险性预测的概率模型。考虑资料的不均匀性和适宜不同地区的地震前兆方法的差异，本文还提出了概率预测模型简化形式，以满足全国不同地区的需要。本文以华北北部地区为例讨论了该模型的实际应用。文中提出的方法可以用于全国十年尺度地震危险性的概率预测。根据本项研究提供的结果和计算程序，可以满足地震对策和地震损失估计对地震中长期概率预测的需要。

Primary Study on Probabilistic Prediction of Seismic Hazard in the Period of Ten Years

Many uncertainty factors are needed to due with in the seismic hazard prediction for ten years period. Restricted by these uncertainties, the result of prediction is also uncertain in certain extent. So the probabilistic analysis method of seismic hazard should be adopted. Under the consideration of the imhomogeiety of the time, location and magnitude of the future earthquake and the probabilistic combination of the background of long term seismic hazard (geology, geophysics field, ed. ) and the precursor of earthquake occurrence a model of probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in period of ten years is proposed. Under the consideration of the inhomogerous of data and earthquake precursor for different region in China, a simplified model is also proposed in order to satisfy the need of different region of the whole country. Atrial in northern China is made to discuss the application of the model. The method proposed in this paper can be used in the probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in the period of ten years. Accoring the results of prediction and computer program, it cna satisfy the need of loss estimation of earthquake and counter measure for earthquake disaster.