| 预测10年尺度地震危险性的综合模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 金学申 戴英华. 预测10年尺度地震危险性的综合模型[J]. 中国地震, 1995, 11(3): 248-256 |
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| 作者姓名： | 金学申 戴英华 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北省地震局 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科学技术委员会和国家地震局85－907－04－01课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文依据信息量的定量判定方法，从分析地震地质和前兆因子与强震发生的关系出发，对各种因子所能提供的长期或１０年尺度强震危险的信息量作了估计。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震 危险性 地震预报 地震前兆 综合模型 |
Synthetic Prediction Model on Seismic Risk in 10 Years Term |
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| Jin Xueshen,Dai Yinghua,Liu Yunqing. Synthetic Prediction Model on Seismic Risk in 10 Years Term[J]. Earthquake Research in China, 1995, 11(3): 248-256 |
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| Authors: | Jin Xueshen Dai Yinghua Liu Yunqing |
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| Abstract: | Based on the quantitative judgement method of the information and the analysis results for the relations between the seismogeology and precursors and strong earthquakes, the information of strong earthquake risk in the coming 10 years given by various precursors has been estimated. Therefore, a synthetic probability model for the prediction of the strong earthquake risk in the coming 10 years has been suggested. As a example, the result of the seismic risk in northern part of North China has been used to explain the feasibility of the synthetic probability model in medium-long-term earthquake prediction. |
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| Keywords: | Prediction 10 years term Seismic risk Sythenetic model |
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