中—长期地震预测方法概率增益的评估

对各种不同时空尺度地震预测方法的概率增益Ｋ的评估，是应用地震预测综合概率增益模型的基本研究内容之一。各种尺度地震预测方法可分为空间增益，时间增益和时空增益三种类型，初步研究了概率增益Ｋ的评估方法，给出预测状态概率评估概率增益Ｋ的关系，并得出地震预测方法的Ｒ值评分与概率增益Ｋ的关系

ASSESSMENT OF PROBABILITY GAINS OF PREDICTION METHODS IN MEDlUM AND LONG-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

The assessment of probabllity gains K of earthquake prediction methods with different time and space scales is one of basic studies on synthetical probability gain model of earth-quake prediction. The earthquake prediction methods with different time and space scales can be divlded into tree types ,i. e. time gain, space gain and time-space gain. In this pa-per, the assessment methods of probability gains are studied, the relations between predic-tion state probability and probability gain and between prediction R value and probability gain are given. On the basis of synthetical probability gain model, it is possible to make the better medium- and long term earthquake predictions at present time.