Assimilation of Polarimetric Radar Data Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for the Analysis and Forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar

This study explores the potential for directly assimilating polarimetric radar data (including reflectivity Z and differential reflectivity Z_DR) using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model to improve analysis and forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar (2018). Ewiniar weakened but brought about heavy rainfall over Guangdong, China after its final landfall. In the present study, two experiments are performed, one assimilating only Z and the other assimilating both Z and Z_DR. Assimilation of Z_DR together with Z effectively modifies hydrometeor fields, and improves the forecast of the intensity, shape and position of rainbands. Forecast of 24-hour extraordinary rainfall ≥250 mm is significantly improved. Improvement can also be seen in the wind fields because of cross-variable covariance. The current study shows the possibility of applying polarimetric radar data to improve forecasting of tropical cyclones, which deserves more research in the future.