火山活动对热带高空温度变化的影响

本文利用序列回归分析、对比分析和个例分析法分析了火山活动对热带高空大气的温度效应. 主要结论为：火山活动影响最显著的高度是平流层70 hPa约22 km高空，由此高度向上或向下，火山活动的影响都逐渐减小；火山活动将引起平流层大气升温、对流层大气降温，其分界线大致位于对流层顶300 hPa附近；火山活动对于热带70 hPa高空温度距平变化的影响超过了总方差的457%；单独考察几次强火山活动（如阿贡火山、皮纳图博火山和厄尔奇冲火山等）的温度效应表明，在热带地区强火山爆发后的20个月内，对热带高空温度的影响超过了其距平变化的80%！成为该时段高空温度变化的决定性因素.

Effect of volcanic activity on the temperature in the tropical upper atmosphere

Case studies by using regression and comparison show that volcanic activity influences the tropical air temperature in the upper atmosphere,which is most significant in the 70 hPa layer about 22 km of the stratosphere; and beyond or below the height,the effect gradually decreases.The result also shows that volcanic activity can cause temperature increase in the stratosphere but decrease in the troposphere.The division line is located at 300 hPa near the tropopause.The contribution of volcanic activity to the anomalous temperature of tropical air temperature at the 70 hPa latitude is more than 26% of total variance,according to our calculation.The case study of several intensive volcanic activities(such as volcanoes Agung,Pinatubo and El Chichon) show that when intensive volcanic activity occurs, more than 80% of the anomalous temperature variability in tropical upper levels would be affected within 20 months.Therefore,volcanism is a strong factor causing temperature change in a quite long period after the explosion.