基于三参数Weibull分布的安徽省年最大风速均一性检验

以安徽省56个国家级气象站1980—2018年年最大风速序列为研究对象,采用基于三参数Weibull分布的变点检验方法对年最大风速序列均一性进行检验,以郎溪站数据为例,给出了检验和分析的具体过程,最后将该方法检验结果与PM-FT法、SNHT法检验结果进行了对比分析.结果表明:56个站点的年最大风速序列均通过Weibul...

A homogeneity test for annual maximum wind speed based on three-parameter Weibull distribution

Using the dataset of annual maximum wind speed from 56 national meteorological stations in Anhui province from 1980 to 2018, a homogeneity test method based on three-parameter Weibull distribution was used for the test of the annual maximum wind speed.Taking the data from Langxi meteorological station as an example, the detailed process of experiment and analysis for this method was given.In the end, the performance of this method was compared with those of PMFT and SNHT methods.The results show that the data of annual maximum wind speed from 56 stations pass the Weibull distribution test, while only 45 stations pass the normal distribution test in the annual maximum wind speed sequence, which indicates that the annual maximum wind speed is more consistent with the Weibull distribution.18 inhomogeneity points are detected using the Weibull method, and 15 of these are verified with an accuracy of 83.3%.The detected 4 inhomogeneity points using the PMFT method are caused by the relocation of the weather station, with the accuracy reaching 100%.Meanwhile, 15 of the detected 20 inhomogeneity points using the SNHT method are verified, and the accuracy is 75%.The main reason for the sequence inhomogeneity is the relocation of the weather station, the changes in instrument types and detection environment, and adjustment of instrument height.It is found that the PMFT method has a relatively lower sensitivity to the inhomogeneity of annual maximum wind speed sequence than the Weibull and SNHT methods.Meanwhile, the SNHT method requires a high quality test data sequence and its accuracy is lower than that of the Weibull method, suggesting that the Weibull method has a better performance on the homogeneity test of the annual maximum wind speed sequence.