| Seismic risk analysis of coastal area of Pakistan |
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| 引用本文： | ShahidA.Khan M.AliShah M.Qaisar. Seismic risk analysis of coastal area of Pakistan[J]. 地震学报(英文版), 2003, 16(4): 382-394. DOI: 10.1007/s11589-003-0071-0 |
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| 作者姓名： | ShahidA.Khan M.AliShah M.Qaisar |
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| 作者单位： | MicroSeismicStudiesProgram,PakistanAtomicEnergyCommission,Islamabad45650,Pakistan |
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| 摘 要： | Estimation of seismic hazard for the fast developing coastal area of Pakistan is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. On the basis of seismotectonics and geology, eleven faults are recognized in five seismic provinces as potential hazard sources. Maximum magnitude potential for each of these sources is calculated. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at the seven coastal cities due to the maximum credible earthquake on the relevant source are also obtained. Cities of Gwadar and Ormara with acceleration values of 0.21g and 0.25g respec-tively fall in the high seismic risk area. Cities of Turbat and Karachi lie in low seismic risk area with acceleration values of less than 0.1g. The Probabilistic PGA maps with contour interval of 0.05g for 50 and 100 years return period with 90% probability of non-exceedance are also compiled.
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| 关 键 词： | 地震危险性分析 巴基斯坦 沿海地区 地震灾害 最大设想地震 循环周期 |
| 收稿时间： | 2001-10-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002-07-12 |
Seismic risk analysis of coastal area of Pakistan |
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| Shahid A.Khan,M.Ali Shah,M.Qaisar. Seismic risk analysis of coastal area of Pakistan[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition), 2003, 16(4): 382-394. DOI: 10.1007/s11589-003-0071-0 |
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| Authors: | Shahid A.Khan M.Ali Shah M.Qaisar |
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| Affiliation: | Micro Seismic Studies Program, Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, Islamabad 45650, Pakistan |
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| Abstract: | Estimation of seismic hazard for the fast developing coastal area of Pakistan is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. On the basis of seismotectonics and geology, eleven faults are recognized in five seismic provinces as potential hazard sources. Maximum magnitude potential for each of these sources is calculated. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at the seven coastal cities due to the maximum credible earthquake on the relevant source are also obtained. Cities of Gwadar and Ormara with acceleration values of 0.21g and 0.25g respectively fall in the high seismic risk area. Cities of Turbat and Karachi lie in low seismic risk area with acceleration values of less than 0.1g. The Probabilistic PGA maps with contour interval of 0.05g for 50 and 100 years return period with 90% probability of non-exceedance are also compiled. |
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| Keywords: | seismic risk analysis deterministic and probabilistic approaches maximum credible earthquake recurrenceperiod |
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