Nowcasting Bordoichila with a composite stability index

In operational forecast, the stability indices either individually or in combination are utilized to assess the predictability of local severe storms over a region. The objective of the present study is to identify such stability indices to assess the predictability of Bordoichila of Guwahati, India, during the pre-monsoon season (April–May) aiming to formulate a composite stability index using the most pertinent indices for nowcasting Bordoichila with considerable precision. Bordoichila, meaning the angry daughter of Assam, represents local severe storms of Guwahati during the pre-monsoon season. Precise forecast of Bordoichila is essential to mitigate the associated catastrophe over Guwahati. The forecast quality detection parameters are computed with the available indices during the period from 1997 to 2006 to select the most relevant stability indices for the prevalence of Bordoichila. The method of normal probability distribution is implemented to identify the threshold ranges of the selected indices. The stability indices that are selected with appropriate ranges are lifted index, Showalter index (SI), cross total index (CTI), vertical total index, totals total, convective available potential energy, convective inhibition energy, SWEAT and bulk Richardson number. The forecast skill scores are estimated with the selected indices. The best predictor indices identified for the prevalence of Bordoichila are the cross total index (CTI) and Showalter index (SI). A composite stability index, Bordoichila prediction index, is formulated with CTI and SI with proper weightages. The forecast with BPI is validated with the observations of India Meteorological Department for the year 2007 and is implemented for real-time forecast for the years 2009 and 2011.