北京郊区乡村旅游季节性特征及其影响因素

京郊地区乡村旅游发展迅速,已成为北京居民重要的休闲旅游目的地。本研究以2008-2010 年京郊乡村地区的旅游统计数据为基础,采用月度指数、快速样本聚类法和基尼指数等指标及方法,分析并测定京郊地区乡村旅游的月度分布特征、旅游季节划分以及旅游季节性强度等季节性特征。基础数据分析结果显示:京郊乡村旅游的季节性特征明显,在全年范围内形成旺季、平季和淡季3 个旅游季节,其中4-5 月、7-8 月和10 月是3 个旅游旺季,11 月到来年1 月是旅游淡季,其余月份为平季。然后,从自然因素(地理条件、气候条件)和社会因素(公共假日、社会关系和节事活动)等2 个主要方面入手,阐释了京郊地区乡村旅游季节性特征的影响因素,指出相对静态(可调节性较弱)的公共假日和相对动态(可调节性较强)的节事活动是京郊地区乡村旅游季节性特征的主要成因。

Analysis on the Features and Causes of Seasonality in Rural Tourism: A Case Study of Beijing Suburbs

As one of the most distinctive features of tourism,seasonality has long been recognized and studied by tourism researchers worldwide.The first part of the paper did a comprehensive review of the relative domestic and international research on this topic.In recent years,rural tourism has been spreading quickly in Beijing suburb,which gradually becomes one of the hotspots of urban recreation destinations in Beijing.However,the destination is suffering from the sereve fluctuation of tourist flows throughout the year.Hence this paper takes the rural tourism in Beijing suburbs as a case study,aiming to find out the seasonality features and their influencing factors,as well as possible measures to overcome it.Based on the monthly tourist data series over the period 2008-2010,the study first used Seasonal Ratios combined with K-means non-hierarchical cluster analysis to obtain the seasonal pattern of Beijing suburban tourism,in which 12 months could be classified into 3 seasons: peak season(April to May,July to August,October),low season(November to January) and normal season(all the rest),and the months in respective seasonal partitions are extracted as well.The paper then explored the influencing factors of the seasonality in two aspects: natural factors and social factors.Results show that natural elements(mainly geographic features and climatic factors) greatly affect the behavior of rural travelers,especially in winter;however it is still not the leading role in seasonality,whereas social factors including public holidays,social traditions,and festivals & events play a more important role.After analyzing the seasonality feature and the distribution of national holidays throughout the year,the paper indicated a close correlation between these two elements.In conclusion,the paper found out that public holiday(with low flexibility) and festival & events(with high flexibility) are the predominant factors that affect the seasonality pattern in Beijing suburban tourism.