能源安全研究的理论与方法及其主要进展

在能源价格和温室气体减排双重驱动下，能源安全研究再次成为学术界关注的热点。加强能源安全理论、方法研究，对于把握能源安全关键要素，识别一国（区域）能源安全状态及演进趋势具有重要的现实意义，同时为能源安全预警与响应机制的构筑奠定了坚实基础。本文对国内外能源安全理论、方法及其主要进展进行了综述，研究结果表明：①国内能源安全定量研究较为薄弱，主要表现为研究成果匮乏、缺乏共识；②国际上，能源安全研究方法大多基于能源安全多样性指数——Shannon．Wiener指数（SWI）与Herfindahl．Hirschman指数（HHI）。其中，又以英国能源供应安全联合研究小组（JESS）、荷兰能源研究中，12,（ECN）、国际能源署（IEAl以及亚太能源研究中心（APERC）所开发的能源安全模型较具有代表性；③能源安全定量研究在时间尺度、空间尺度、评价内容及不确定性上均有待改进。

Theories, Methods and Progress of Energy Security Research

The renewed focus on energy security is driven,to some degree,by the soaring energy price and the increasing pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.Strengthening research on theories and methods of energy security is helpful not only in mastering the key elements and identify evolution trends of energy security,but also in laying a solid foundation for early warning and policy research.This article summarized the theories,methods and major progress of energy security,and found out the following results.(1) The quantitative study on energy security of China is very limited.There are very few quantitative empirical studies and a lack of consensus on the conceptual framework and evaluation model of energy security.(2) International evaluation models are mostly based on Shannon-Wiener Index and Herfindahl-Hirschman Index.At present,more representative evaluation models of energy security are developed by Joint Energy Security of Supply Working Group(JESS),Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands(ECN),International Energy Agency(IEA),The Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre.(3) Discussion and some perspectives in this paper imply that quantitative research on energy security should be improved from the aspects of temporal scale,spatial scale,contents,uncertainties and others.