多主体系统在城市发展模拟中的应用

多主体系统(Multi-Agent System, MAS)是由多个主体(Agent)组成的松散的网络,每个主体根据其属性和行为规则互相交流、协作甚至竞争。MAS通过模拟和观察大量主体的微观行为来研究系统整体的宏观规律,对复杂系统的演化机理具有更合理、更准确的解释力,因此,MAS在城市发展模拟中有很大的应用前景。本文介绍了多主体系统的基本框架及模拟思路,综述了国内外城市模拟研究中MAS理论的应用现状。重点分析了MAS理论在城市模拟应用中的五个关键课题:即微观个体数据的获取、微观主体的合理选择、主体行为规则的提取和设定、主体之间相互作用的描述与表达、环境变量的提取与导入等,并对相关研究进展进行了综述。研究表明,城市发展预测与政策评价是MAS应用的重点突破方向之一。

Application of Multi-agent System in Simulation of Urban Development: A Review

The multi-agent system(MAS) is a loose network composed of mass Agents,each agent communicates and cooperates with each other based on its own properties and behavior rules.MAS studies the macro regularity of the whole system through simulating and observing a large number of agents’micro behaviors.The evolution of complex system mechanism has developed to a more reasonable and more accurate extent,therefore,MAS has a large application prospect in urban development simulation.This paper introduced the basic framework of multi-agent system,reviewed present research progress of the application of MAS theory,and analyze the five key topics of MAS in urban development simulation: acquisition of micro individual data,selection of agents,extraction and set of behavior rules,expression of interactions between agents,extraction and import of environment variables.Research shows that the prediction and evaluation of urban development policy is the key breakthrough in the application of MAS.