适应自然灾害的研究方法进展

自然灾害损失虽然不可避免, 但可通过调整人类活动规避或减轻风险, 实现人类社会与自然灾害共存的协调适应。本文基于适应自然灾害研究发展的历程, 综述了现有适应性研究中的定性和定量研究方法。前者主要集中在对多尺度的适应主体综合分析、底层家庭或群体适应以及顶层的政策适应等方面;而后者主要集中在生态系统适应、民众或区域适应对策优选及适应能力评估等方面。基于数理模型或者实地观测实验的定量评估以及多指标、多标准的综合评估方法是适应自然灾害定量研究的主流。研究表明:①适应自然灾害研究有向综合性和精细化方向发展的趋势, 一些系统综合分析方法以及本地乡土的适应自然灾害逐渐引起重视。②目前适应自然灾害研究方法上存在自上而下与自下而上两种研究途径, 而探索这两种途径有效结合的多尺度综合研究方法是适应自然灾害研究的关键。

Progress on Research Methods of Adaptation to Natural Disaster

Natural disasters are inevitable,but can be substantially reduced or mitigated by arranging human activities rationally to create the conditions for a harmonious coexistence of human and nature.Based on the studies of human’s adaptation to hazards,some quantitative and qualitative methods on the issue were reviewed.The quantitative methods mainly consist of multi-scale-subject adaptation analysis,adaptation of the common people at the bottom and the policy for adaptation to natural disaster.The qualitative methods mainly involved adaptation of the ecosystem,policies or strategies optimization and so on.The results are shown as follows.(1) Some physical and mathematical models or some joint evaluation patterns have become the mainstream of the qualitative methods.Studies on adaptation to natural disaster show a synthetical and detailed trend.Some system comprehensive analysis methods and local native knowledge become popular.(2) As regards to the starting points on the issue,there are two approaches,the top-down one and the bottom-up one,different from what they focused on,but there would be a new method to combine the bottom-up approach with the top-down one,which is the just point for comprehensive system analysis of social ecosystems adaptation to natural disaster.In the end,several research trends on adaptation to natural disasters in the future are discussed.These conclusions can provide reference for seeking for a comprehensive research method.