贵州省土地利用及其生态系统服务价值与灰色预测

以贵州省1996-2008 年土地利用变更调查数据为基础, 采用生态系统服务价值评估模型、敏感性指数和灰色预测模型, 对土地利用变化引起的生态系统服务价值的变化进行了估算, 对区域土地利用构成和生态系统服务价值进行了灰色预测。结果表明:贵州省近13 年来, 耕地、牧草地和未利用土地面积均呈现减少的趋势, 而林地、园地、建设用地和水域面积呈增加趋势;贵州省2008 年的生态系统服务总价值比1996 年增加了59.08 亿元, 变化率为3.01%;贵州西北地区的生态系统服务总价值的变化率较贵州东南地区显著;敏感性分析表明采用的生态价值系数是合理的, 研究区内的生态系统服务价值缺乏弹性;利用灰色GM(1,1)模型对贵州省2015 年和2020 年的土地利用构成和生态系统服务价值进行预测, 未来10 年贵州呈现林地、建设用地持续增加、耕地持续减少的趋势;2015 和2020 年土地利用结构信息熵分别为1.4320 和1.4331, 表明土地利用结构逐渐趋于均衡, 2020 年区域生态资产增加到2119.03 亿元。

Land Use and Ecosystem Service Values and Their Grey Forecast in Guizhou Province

Based on the land use change data in Guizhou province from 1996 to 2008,and by the evaluation of ecosystem service values,coefficient of sensitivity and grey forecast model,this paper estimated the changes in land use and ecosystem service values,and predicted the land use structure and ecosystem services values.The results are shown as follows.(1) During 1996 and 2008 in Guizhou province,the land use structures showed that forest land,garden land,construction land and water body increased significantly,while cultivated land,grassland and unused land showed a decreasing trend.(2) The total ecosystem services values in the study area in 2008 is 5.908 billions yuan more than those in 1996,an increase of 3.01%.(3) The change rate of ecosystem services value of the northwestern part is much larger than that in the southeastern part of the study area.4) The coefficient sensitivity analysis showed that the ecological value coefficients are reasonable,and the ecosystem service values lack flexibility in the study area.(5) The land use structures of Guizhou province in 2015 and 2020 were predicted by using the GM(1,1) model.The trend of woodland and construction land would maintain a continual increase while the cultivated land a continual decrease in the ten years to come.The total ecosystem services value in 2020 would reach 21.19×108 yuan.The information entropy values of land use structure were 1.4320 and 1.4331,respectively,implying that land use structures tend to be more and more balanced.