基于ECM模型的成都市城镇居民收入与消费问题的实证研究

利用成都市1978—2007年度的城镇居民可支配收入和人均消费支出数据，构建误差修正模型进行了实证研究，结果显示：成都市城镇居民人均消费支出和可支配收入两变量存在协整关系；人均可支配收入是影响消费支出最根本的原因；由于误差修正系数为负数，符合反向修正机制，使得短期的消费政策无效。因此，长期来看，政府必须采取有效措施提高居民的可支配收入，优化供给和消费结构，才能实现扩大内需的政策目标。

Empirical research of income and consumption problem of urban residents in Chengdu based on ECM mode

Using the annual data between 1978 and 2007 in Chengdu an empirical research based on the error correction model is made on the relations between the disposable income of the urban residents and the consumption expenditure per capita.The results show that the consumption expenditure per capita of Chengdu urban residents and disposable income of the two variables has a cointegration relationship.The disposable income per capita is the most fundamental reason that impacts the consumer spending.The error corre...