畜牧业雪灾致灾成害过程和风险评估研究进展与展望

畜牧业雪灾是牧区冬、春季节最严重的自然灾害之一,往往会造成大量牲畜伤亡,严重威胁和制约了牧区畜牧业生产和高质量发展,未来气候变化使得畜牧业雪灾风险存在着更大的不确定性。论文基于区域自然灾害系统理论,梳理了畜牧业雪灾致灾成害过程和风险评估的理论框架,从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体等方面系统总结了当前研究进展,以及存在的主要问题。最后针对今后畜牧业雪灾研究进行了展望,主要包括以下6个方面：① 增强草高估算和雪深反演精度研究;② 深化积雪分配过程研究及多致灾因子与孕灾环境耦合的危险性分析;③ 强化缺氧环境对畜牧业雪灾致灾成害过程的影响机制研究;④ 加强牲畜暴露分布的时空变化研究;⑤推进畜牧业雪灾减灾措施的成本效益分析;⑥ 加强气候变化背景下畜牧业雪灾风险定量评估和多学科交叉研究。

Advances and prospects of livestock snow disaster mechanism research and risk assessment

Livestock snow disaster is one of the most serious natural hazard-related disasters with long duration and wide influences in pastoral regions during winter and spring, which can cause a large number of livestock deaths and injuries. It has seriously threatened and restricted the production and high-quality development of animal husbandry in pastoral regions, with increasing uncertainties in its risk under climate change. Based on the natural disaster system theory, this study examined the theoretical framework of livestock snow disaster formation mechanism and risk assessment, and systematically summarized the progress of relevant research and methods in view of hazard, disaster formative environment, exposure, and risk assessment, along with identifying existing questions. Finally, future research directions of livestock snow disaster are proposed as follows: 1) Enhance the study on the estimation of grass height and the accuracy of retrieving snow depth. 2) Deepen the research on the physical process and mechanism of snow distribution and the coupling risk analysis of multi-hazards and disaster formative environment. 3) Strengthen the study on the spatiotemporal changes of livestock exposure. 4) Strengthen the study on the role of hypoxia environment on the formation mechanism of livestock snow disaster. 5) Promote the cost-benefit analysis of mitigation measures of livestock snow disaster. 6) Improve the study on quantitatively assessing livestock snow disaster risk in the context of climate change, as well as interdisciplinary research.