建成环境对居民通勤方式选择的影响——以武汉市城中村为例

城中村作为带着农民特色和阶级混杂重塑的空间,为弱势劳动群体融入城市化体系、实现反资本而不反市场的城镇化进程提供了保障。探讨建成环境对居民通勤方式选择的影响机制,开展城中村建成环境改造,对于解决弱势群体通勤和就业困难意义重大。论文基于武汉市2018年LBS(Location Based Services)数据,以公共交通通勤方式选择作为二元分类因变量,采用梯度提升决策树(gradient boosting decision tree,GBDT)分析建成环境与城中村居民通勤方式选择的非线性关系与阈值效应,结果显示：普遍长距离通勤的城中村居民对公共交通系统依赖性强,建成环境的非线性影响和阈值效应明显,弥补了传统线性模型在可解释性上的不足;其中公交站可达性预测贡献度最大(19.89%),阈值分别在300 m和1000 m左右,在城中村改造时应尽量满足直线距离300 m公交站点可达,保证1000 m内存在公交线路,其余变量也有相似的可解释性。研究得到的建成环境影响的优先层次和最有效的空间属性范围将为提升城中村居民就业和通勤公平,实现区域包容、协调的城镇化提供参考。

Impact of the built environment on residents’ commuting mode choices: A case study of urban village in Wuhan City

As a space with farmers' characteristics and reshaped by mixed classes, urban villages provide a guarantee for the vulnerable groups to integrate into the urbanization system and realize the anti-capital but not anti-market urbanization process. Exploring the impact mechanism of the built environment on residents' commuting mode choices and carrying out inclusive renovation of the built environment of urban villages will be of great significance for addressing the commuting and employment difficulties of vulnerable groups. Based on the location based services (LBS) data of Wuhan City in 2018 and taking the choice of commuting mode as binary dependent variable, this study used the gradient boosting decision tree to explore the nonlinear relationship between the built environment and commuting mode choices of urban village residents and threshold effect. The results show that the residents of urban villages who commute for a long distance generally depend on the public transport system, and the nonlinear influence and threshold effect of the built environment are obvious, which make up for the insufficient interpretability of the traditional linear model. The contribution of bus station accessibility is the largest (19.89%) in prediction, and the thresholds are about 300 m and 1000 m respectively. In urban village reconstruction, bus station within a Euclidean distance of 300 m should be satisfied as far as possible, there must be bus lines within 1000 m, and other variables have similar interpretability. The impact priority level and the most effective spatial attribute range of the built environment obtained from this study will provide a reference for improving the employment and commuting equity of urban village residents and for realizing regional inclusive and coordinated urbanization.