北斗三号卫星钟差短期预报与稳定性分析

针对北斗三号(BDS-3)卫星钟短期预报问题，在分析卫星原子钟频率稳定性的基础上，选用时间序列模型(ARIMA)、灰色模型(GM)、一次多项式(LP)以及二次多项式(QP)四种钟差预报模型对30天的数据进行拟合预报分析. 实验结果表明:1) 相对于北斗二号(BDS-2)，BDS-3原子钟具有更高的稳定性. 其中BDS-3氢钟的千秒稳定性、万秒稳定性和日稳定性分别达到了4.2×10?14、1.89×10?14、4.14×10?15；2) BDS-3氢钟和BDS-3新型铷钟的预报稳定性和精度相对于BDS-2铷钟有明显提高，并且BDS-3氢钟在3 h、6 h和12 h下的预报精度分别达到了0.12 ns、0.18 ns和0.30 ns；3) 在四种模型中，时间序列模型的预报精度最高，在3 h、6 h和12 h下精度分别为0.26 ns、0.47 ns和0.96 ns. 

Short-term prediction and stability analysis of BDS-3 satellite clocks bias

Aiming at the short-term prediction of the BeiDou-3 Navigation Satellite System (BDS-3) satellite clock, based on the analysis of the frequency stability of the satellite atomic clock, and autoregressive integrated moving average, grey model, linear polynomial and quadratic polynomial four kinds of clock bias prediction models are used to fit and predict based on 30 days of data. The experimental results show that: 1) Compared with BeiDou-2 Navigation Satellite System (BDS-2), the BDS-3 atomic clock has higher stability, among which the thousand-second stability, ten-thousand-second stability and daily stability of the BDS-3 hydrogen clock have reached 4.2×10?14, 1.89×10?14 and 4.14×10?15 respectively; 2) The prediction stability of the BDS-3 hydrogen clock and the BDS-3 new rubidium clock is significantly improved compared to the BDS-2 rubidium clock, and the prediction accuracy of the BDS-3 hydrogen clock is the best, reaching 0.12 ns, 0.18 ns, 0.30 ns at 3 h, 6 h and 12 h respectively; 3) Among the four models, the time series model has the highest forecast accuracy, with accuracy of 0.26 ns, 0.47 ns and 0.96 ns at 3 h, 6 h and 12 h, respectively.