基于“一带一路”的拉丁美洲地缘风险空间分异格局及驱动因素

以拉丁美洲33个主权国家为研究对象，从国际、区域、国内3个尺度出发，构建了基于“一带一路”的拉丁美洲地缘风险评价指标体系对其地缘风险予以评价，利用地理探测器对拉丁美洲三大地理区域的地缘风险空间分异格局驱动因子群予以精准识别。结果表明：1）基于“一带一路”的拉丁美洲地缘风险空间异质性显著，地缘风险指数、国际地缘风险、区域地缘风险以及国内地缘风险下的政治风险和生态环境风险均表现为南美洲地区最高，墨西哥及中美洲地区次之，加勒比地区最低的空间格局；国内地缘风险表现为墨西哥及中美洲地区最高，南美洲地区次之，加勒比地区最低；经济风险表现为南美洲地区最高，加勒比地区次之，墨西哥及中美洲地区最低；社会风险表现为加勒比地区最高，南美洲地区次之，墨西哥及中美洲地区最低；双边关系风险表现为墨西哥及中美洲地区最高，加勒比地区次之，南美洲地区最低。2）各因子群对三大地理区域地缘风险空间分异格局的作用力各不相同。对南美洲地区作用力显著的因子群主要有政治风险、国际地缘风险和社会风险等；对墨西哥及中美洲地区作用力显著的因子群主要有经济风险、双边关系风险、国际地缘风险、政治风险等；对加勒比地区作用力较大的因子群主要有社会风险、国际地缘风险、政治风险、双边关系风险等。

Spatial Differentiation Pattern and Driving Factors of Geo-Risk in Latin America Based on the "Belt and Road" Initiative

The inherent geo-strategic attributes of the "Belt and Road" initiative are inevitably impacted by geo-risks. Latin America is a critical practice space for the "Belt and Road" initiative. As a natural extension of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, it plays a pivotal role in the "Belt and Road" initiative. However, there is a lack of systematic research on the geo-risks faced by the "Belt and Road" initiative in Latin America. The study aims to measure the geo-risk index faced by the 33 sovereign countries of the "Belt and Road" initiative in Latin America and its spatial differentiation pattern; further, it aims to analyze the driving factors in the spatial differentiation pattern of geo-risk. It seeks to provide support for deepening the cooperation between Chinese domestic enterprises and organizations and Latin American countries, within the framework of the "Belt and Road" initiative. Starting with the international, regional, and domestic scales, a Latin American geo-risk evaluation index system based on the "Belt and Road" was constructed. This study uses the entropy-expert scoring method to determine the weight of each index, evaluates the geo-risks of 33 sovereign countries in Latin America, and uses geographic detectors to accurately identify the driving factor groups in the spatial differentiation pattern of geo-risks in the three major geographical regions of Latin America. The research indicates the following: (1) The geo-risk spatial heterogeneity of Latin America based on the "Belt and Road" is obvious. The geo-risk index, international geo-risk index, regional geo-risk index, political risk, and ecological environmental risk under domestic geo-risks are the highest in South America, followed by Mexico and Central America, and the lowest in the Caribbean; the domestic geo-risk is the highest in Mexico and Central America, followed by South America, and the lowest in the Caribbean; the economic risk is the highest in South America, followed by the Caribbean, while it is the lowest in Mexico and Central America; the highest social risk is in the Caribbean, followed by South America, while it is the lowest in the Caribbean; the risk of bilateral relations is the highest in Mexico and Central America, the second highest in the Caribbean, and the lowest in South America. (2) The influence of each factor group on the geo-risk spatial differentiation pattern in the three major geographical regions is different. The factor groups with a relatively large impact on South America are mainly political risk, international geo-risk, and social risk, while those with a relatively large impact on Mexico and Central America are mainly economic risks, bilateral relationship risks, international geo-risks, political risks, and other factor groups. The factor groups with a relatively large impact on the Caribbean are mainly social risks, international geo-risks, political risks, and bilateral relationship risks. To some extent, the study enriches the geo-risk evaluation system and provides a reference for conducting geo-risk evaluations. Meanwhile, it may also serve as a reference for domestic enterprises and organizations to avoid risks in their cooperation with Latin American countries within the framework of the "Belt and Road" initiative.