| T42模式产品在南昌地区大—暴雨中的统计学解释应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 戴熙敏,王田民,曹晓岗. T42模式产品在南昌地区大—暴雨中的统计学解释应用[J]. 气象, 1993, 19(7): 31-34 |
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| 作者姓名： | 戴熙敏 王田民 曹晓岗 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西省气象台,江西省气象台,江西省气象台 南昌 330046,南昌 330046,南昌 330046 |
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| 摘 要： | 使用1990—1991年5—6月的T_(42)模式产品,采用样本正态化消空剔除手段,分别建立了中雨、大雨的消空方程y_1、y_2及大-暴雨判别方程y_3。y_1、y_2减少空报,y_3减少漏报。3个方程配套使用比用单个方程的效果好,成功界限指数有明显的提高,1992年试用效果较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨 统计学 模式产品 |
T42 MOS Forecast on Heavy rain in The District of Nanchang |
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| Dai Ximin Wang Tianmin Cao Xiaogang. T42 MOS Forecast on Heavy rain in The District of Nanchang[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 1993, 19(7): 31-34 |
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| Authors: | Dai Ximin Wang Tianmin Cao Xiaogang |
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| Affiliation: | Meteorological Observatory of Jiangxi Province |
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| Abstract: | Moderate rain and heavy rain elimination equations y1, y2 and discriminant equation y3 of heavy rain are established with normalized sample rejection method T42 model output in May-June,1990-1991. The y1,y2 equations decreases the forecast "Occurrence" while the weather is no occurrence,y3 equation decreases the forecast "No"while the weather is occurrence. Conveyance using these three equations is more effective than using single one equation. "CSI"score increases obviously. Experimental forecast made in 1992 is better. |
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| Keywords: | T42 model output heavy rain statistical interpretation |
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