| 湖北省梅雨期分级降水预报试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 李才媛. 湖北省梅雨期分级降水预报试验[J]. 气象, 1996, 22(1): 49-52 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李才媛 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉中心气象台 |
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| 摘 要： | 以武汉中心气象台日常业务降水预报项目为研究对象，选择梅雨期１２－３６小时预报时段，以灰色系统理论的生成函数为基础，运用灰色预测模型将ＬＡＦＳ模式等降水量预报集成，制作了武汉单站降水量分级（弱降水，中等强度降水和强降水）预报。运用回归分析方法，将ＬＡＦＳ资料的降水量预告场订正到湖北省５个自然区，制作湖北省区域降水分级预报。经过１９９３年、１９９４年准业务试验，获得了较好的效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测 回归分析 分级降水预报 梅雨期 |
The Experiment of Classification Rainfall forecast in Hubei During Mei-yu Period |
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| Li Caiyuan. The Experiment of Classification Rainfall forecast in Hubei During Mei-yu Period[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 1996, 22(1): 49-52 |
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| Authors: | Li Caiyuan |
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| Abstract: | h rainfall forecast has been studied in 5 feature regions of Hubei and Wuhan station during mei-yu period. It was divided into 3 grades (light rain.moderate rain and heavyrain). Based on the grey forecast model,the precipitation predictand's consensus of vary numerical model (Beijing LAFS.Beijing B.Japan etc. )was made for the station;Using methodof regression analysis,rainfall predictions was given with LAFS data. Semi-operational prediction was conducted in 1993 and 1994. Better forecasting results were achieved. |
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| Keywords: | grey forecasting regression analysis classification rainfall forecasting |
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