| 平衡态和瞬变气候对人类活动强迫的响应 |
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| 引用本文： | 张明华.平衡态和瞬变气候对人类活动强迫的响应[J].南京气象学院学报,2011,34(3):257-268. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张明华 |
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| 作者单位： | 美国纽约州立大学石溪分校，海洋和大气科学学院，美国纽约，11794 |
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| 基金项目： | 美国能源部气候变化预测计划(Climate Change Prediction Program,CCPP)项目; 美国国家科学基金会项目; 美国NASA(National Administration of Space and Aeronautics)模拟和分析计划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 海陆气耦合模式,是用来定量描述过去气候变化的成因和预报未来气候变化的唯一数学工具。由于大气反馈过程的差异,特别是云辐射反馈的差异,这些模式对外强迫的平衡态响应有相当大的差异。然而,参加政府间气候变化专门委员会（Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC）第4次评估报告（Assessment Report,AR4）的所有耦合模式,对20世纪气候的模拟结果均非常相似。本文研究了这种相似性的产生原因及启示。结果表明,若大气反馈越大,则气候对外强迫的响应时滞越长、与深海的热交换越多、模式中海洋涌升流的影响越大。这3种同样重要的物理机制共同作用,降低了瞬变气候变化对模式差异的敏感性;然而,在较长的时间尺度上,模式间大气反馈过程差异将在多个方面显现出来
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| 关 键 词： | 平衡态气候响应 瞬变气候响应 人类活动强迫 大气反馈过程 |
Equilibrium and transient climate response to anthropogenic forcing:The impact of atmospheric feedback processes |
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| ZHANG Ming-hua.Equilibrium and transient climate response to anthropogenic forcing:The impact of atmospheric feedback processes[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2011,34(3):257-268. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Ming-hua |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Ming-hua(School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences,State University of New York at Stony Brook,NY 11794,USA) |
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| Abstract: | Coupled ocean-land-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively attribute past climate change in response to human activities and to predict the magnitude of future climate change.These models are known to differ considerably in their equilibrium sensitivities to external forcing,largely because of differences in atmospheric feedbacks,especially in cloud-climate feedbacks.Yet,all models that participated in the IPCC(Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) Assessment Report... |
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| Keywords: | equilibrium climate response transient climate response anthropogenic forcing atmospheric feedback processes |
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