世界石油探明储量分布特征与空间格局演化

石油探明储量是一个动态变化的过程,文章对1980年以来不同区域尺度,包括全球、各大区以及国家层面的石油探明储量变化、分布特征等进行分析,得出结论:(1)世界石油探明储量自1980年以来大致经历了4个阶段,呈现明显的阶梯状增长的态势,基本每十年出现一次储量跃升,并保持一段时间的平稳。储采比一直稳定在40年以上,呈现缓慢上升的趋势。(2)大区尺度的石油探明储量分布不均衡,且探明储量的变化趋势不同。中东一直是石油探明储量最大的地区,其次为中南美洲地区。中东、北美占世界比重先升后降。非洲和中南美洲稳步提升,亚太地区持续下滑。(3)国家层面的石油探明储量呈现明显的集中分布。储量前4的国家占世界储量的53.75%,储量超过10亿吨的国家在很大程度上主导着世界石油开发的基本格局。从各国演变来看,世界石油储量呈现出多极化的趋势,从中东、北美向中亚、俄罗斯和中南美洲等转移。

Distribution Characteristics and Spatial Evolution of the World Proven Oil Reserves

Proven oil reserve is a dynamic process. This paper analyzes the change and distribution of the proven oil reserves on different regional scales which including the global, the regional, and national levels based on the data from 1980 to 2011. Conclusions are as follows： （1） the change of world proven oil reserves has roughly gone through four stages with obvious trend of stepped characteristic. Generally speaking, inter annual changes in most years were stable, and the R/P ratio showed a slowly rising trend. （2） From the regional scale, the proven oil reserves showed an unbalanced distri-bution and the changing trends showed a different track. The proportion of Middle East and the North America raised at first, and then decreased, while the Africa and the Middle ＆amp; South America raised steadily. （3） From the na-tional level, proven oil reserves showed an obvious clustered distribution and the nations which proven reserves more than 0.5 billion tons controlled the pattern of world oil reserves. Members of “billion tons club”have increased and the reserves have changed significantly from 1980 to 2011.