温室效应引起的江淮流域气候变化预估

 选用英国Hadley中心的RCM-PRECIS模式进行江淮流域气候变化的数值模拟。在验证了PRECIS在江淮流域模拟能力的基础上，对未来CO₂增加后江淮流域的气候变化响应进行了预估。结果表明：在B2情景下，整个江淮流域都将继续增暖，到本世纪末（2071-2100年）区域年平均温度将增加2.9℃,夏季将可能出现更多的高温事件，而冬季极端低温事件减少；降水量呈增加趋势，强降水（尤其是120 mm以上的降水）日数也将增多。

Climate Change Due to Greenhouse Effects in Changjiang-Huaihe River Valley Projected by a Regional Climate Model

A regional climate model (PRECIS), developed by the UK' Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, was used to simulate the climate in the Changjiang-Huaihe River valley. PRECIS'capacity for simulating present climate over the valley was firstly validated by comparing the simulations of temperature and precipitation with the observations during 1961-1990; the model was then used to project the climate change over 2071-2100 in the valley. The results give a regional annual average surface warming of 2.9℃ and a somewhat increase in precipitation under the SRES B2 emission scenario by the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). The results also present more extremely high temperature events during summer and fewer extremely cold events during winter. The number of days with heavy rain (especially above 120 mm/d) will be likely to increase.