| 泥石流防治工程可靠性的超越概率 |
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| 引用本文： | 乔建平,杨宗佶,陈权亮,张志明,石莉莉.泥石流防治工程可靠性的超越概率[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2014(2):1-6. |
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| 作者姓名： | 乔建平 杨宗佶 陈权亮 张志明 石莉莉 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]中国科学院地表过程与山地灾害重点实验室,四川成都610041 [2]中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都610041 [3]成都信息工程学院,四川成都610041 [4]成都地质环境监测站,四川成都610000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划课题（2011BAK12B01）;科技部国际合作项目（2013DFA21720）;973项目（2010CB731504） |
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| 摘 要： | 根据降雨频率重现期统计结果，汶川地震灾区近年来毁坏或失效的泥石流防治工程大多与设计标准降雨频率关系不明显，但与大暴雨和特大暴雨雨强关系密切。所以，在泥石流防治工程可靠性评价方法中，可以引入超越概率的概念，亦即发生超出设计标准降雨频率的工程毁坏或失效概率。本文采用数理统计方法，以震区都江堰泥石流工程为例，讨论了泥石流防治工程的超越概率问题。建立了以雨强为标准的超越概率统计模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 泥石流 工程 超越概率 都江堰 |
Exceedance probability analysis on reliability of debris flows control projects |
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| QIAO Jian-ping,YANG Zong-ji,CHEN Quan-liang,ZHANG Zhi-ming,SHI Li-li.Exceedance probability analysis on reliability of debris flows control projects[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2014(2):1-6. |
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| Authors: | QIAO Jian-ping YANG Zong-ji CHEN Quan-liang ZHANG Zhi-ming SHI Li-li |
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| Institution: | 1. Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface process,Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Science, Chengdu 610041, China; 2. Institute of Mauntain Harzards and Enviorment. CAS, Chengdu 610041, China; 3. Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610041, China; 4. Chengdu Geological Environment Uornitoring Station, Chengdu 61000, China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the statistics results of the rainfall return period, in recent years after Wenchuan earthquake,the has great correlation with the rainfall intensity of big storms and super storms hitting instead of rainfall of designcriteria of debris flow control projects, therefore, the method of exceedance probability analysis, in other word, theprobability beyond the rainfall frequency of design criteria of the debris flow control projects failure, was proposed onthe assessment of reliability of debris flows control projects, the model based on the rainfall frequency statistics wasestablished grounding on the method of mathematical statistics and taking for example of debris flow control projects inDujiangyan County, Chengdu City. |
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| Keywords: | debris flow control projects exceedance probability Dujiangyan County |
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