| 阿勒泰地区寒潮天气特征分析及预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 庄晓翠,安冬亮,张林梅,等.阿勒泰地区寒潮天气特征分析及预报[J].新疆气象,2010,4(1):32-35. |
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| 作者姓名： | 庄晓翠 安冬亮 张林梅 等 |
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| 作者单位： | 庄晓翠,张林梅,胡磊,ZHUANG Xiao-cui,ZHANG Lin-Mei,HU Lei(阿勒泰地区气象台,新疆,阿勒泰836500);安冬亮,AN Dong-liang(石河子市气象局,新疆,石河子832000) |
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| 摘 要： | 采用阿勒泰地区7个气象站1961年9月—2006年5月的地面观测资料,筛选出该地区寒潮天气过程,运用统计法,概括了该地区寒潮天气的气候特征。重点分析了该地区1991年9月—2006年5月111个寒潮个例的历史天气图及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、欧洲中心和T213数值预报产品,并对500hPa高度场、850hPa温度场、地面气压场的季节特征及地面积雪深度和云天状况在形成寒潮天气中的作用进行了分析,从而确立了阿勒泰地区寒潮天气的预报指标。运用欧洲中心和T213数值预报产品以及预报员的经验建立了寒潮天气的预报模式,并进行了检验,效果较好,在预报业务中具有重要的参考价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 寒潮 统计特征 预报 |
Characteristics of Cold Wave Weather and Its Forecast in Altay Prefecture |
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| ZHUANG Xiao-cui,AN Dong-liang,ZHANG Lin-Mei,HU Lei.Characteristics of Cold Wave Weather and Its Forecast in Altay Prefecture[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2010,4(1):32-35. |
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| Authors: | ZHUANG Xiao-cui AN Dong-liang ZHANG Lin-Mei HU Lei |
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| Institution: | ZHUANG Xiao-cui1,AN Dong-liang2,ZHANG Lin-Mei1,HU Lei1 (1.Aletai Meteorological Observatory,Aletai 836500,China,2. Shihezi Meteorological Bureau,Shihezi 832000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Using cold wave data selected from the surface observation data of 7 weather stations located in Altay Prefecture from September 1961 to May 2006, we summarized cold wave climate characteristics by statistical analysis, and studied primarily on 111 cold wave examples, including historical weather maps and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the ECMWF and the T213 numerical forecasting product, especially the significance on cold wave of the 500 hPa geopotential height, 850 hPa temperature, surface pressure field, sn... |
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| Keywords: | cold wave statistical characteristic forecast |
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