Solar influence on nuclear decay rates: constraints from the MESSENGER mission

We have analyzed ¹³⁷Cs decay data, obtained from a small sample onboard the MESSENGER spacecraft en route to Mercury, with the aim of setting limits on a possible correlation between nuclear decay rates and solar activity. Such a correlation has been suggested recently on the basis of data from ⁵⁴Mn decay during the solar flare of 13 December 2006, and by indications of an annual and other periodic variations in the decay rates of ³²Si, ³⁶Cl, and ²²⁶Ra. Data from five measurements of the ¹³⁷Cs count rate over a period of approximately 5.4 years have been fit to a formula which accounts for the usual exponential decrease in count rate over time, along with the addition of a theoretical solar contribution varying with MESSENGER-Sun separation. The indication of solar influence is then characterized by a non-zero value of the calculated parameter ξ, and we find ξ=(2.8±8.1)×10⁻³ for ¹³⁷Cs. A simulation of the increased data that can hypothetically be expected following Mercury orbit insertion on 18 March 2011 suggests that the anticipated improvement in the determination of ξ could reveal a non-zero value of ξ if present at a level consistent with other data.