A numerical storm surge forecast model with Kalman filter

ImUcrIONThe deterministic storm stirge nurnrical fOrecast Tnedel has played an imPOrtant role inroutine storm surge real-time fOrecast. But somtimes the error of forecast is still large by usingdeterministic medels (Je1esnianshi et al., l992). The source of these errors mainly comesfrom (1 ) errors of wind stress and medel's open boundary, (2) non--optimized medel param-eter, (3) error of model equations, (4) error of medel's numrical methed, etc. The effec-ti ve methed to solve this probl…

A numerical storm surge forecast model with Kalman filter

Kalman filter data assimilation technique is incorporated into a standard two-dimensional linear storm surge model. Imperfect model equation and imperfect meteorological forcimg are accounted for by adding noise terms to the momentum equations. The deterministic model output is corrected by using the available tidal gauge station data. The stationary Kalman filter algorithm for the model domain is calculated by an iterative procedure using specified information on the inaccuracies in the momentum e- quations and specified error information for the observations. An application to a real storm surge that occurred in the summer of 1956 in the East China Sea is performed by means of this data assimilation technique. The result shows that Kalman filter is useful for storm surge forecast and hindcast.