| 基于背景值重构的灰色-马尔柯夫模型及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 张文,温荣生,邱淑芳.基于背景值重构的灰色-马尔柯夫模型及其应用[J].华东地质学院学报,2007,30(1):96-100. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张文 温荣生 邱淑芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 东华理工学院数学与信息科学学院 江西抚州344000 |
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| 基金项目： | 东华理工学院校科研和教改项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章叙述了李俊峰等(2004)所提出GM(1,1)预测模型新背景值应用到灰色预测模型中的方法,而后与马尔柯夫模型结合,形成灰色-马尔柯夫预测模型及其改进模型。将所得的模型应用于中国人口预测实例中,结果表明了改进背景值后的模型具有更高预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色-马尔柯夫预测模型 背景值 转移概率 人口 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-2251（2007）01-096-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-09-02 |
Grey-Markov Model Based on Background-values Reconstruction and Its Application |
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| ZHANG Wen,WEN Rong-sheng,QIU Shu-fang.Grey-Markov Model Based on Background-values Reconstruction and Its Application[J].Journal of East China Geological Institute,2007,30(1):96-100. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Wen WEN Rong-sheng QIU Shu-fang |
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| Institution: | Faculty of Mathematics and Informational Sciences, East China Institute of Technology, Fuzhou, JX 344000, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,The method of the GM(1,1)model with the new background-values application,which had been advanced by Junfeng Li et al(2004),was described.Combing with the Markov model,Grey-Markov forecastng model and its improved model were obtaned.Then given the actual example of the chinese population projections,the results demonstrated the improved forecast models with higher forecast accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | Grey-Markov Forecast Model background-value transfer probability population |
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