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Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research |
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| Authors: | Bas J. van Ruijven Marc A. Levy Arun Agrawal Frank Biermann Joern Birkmann Timothy R. Carter Kristie L. Ebi Matthias Garschagen Bryan Jones Roger Jones Eric Kemp-Benedict Marcel Kok Kasper Kok Maria Carmen Lemos Paul L. Lucas Ben Orlove Shonali Pachauri Tom M. Parris Anand Patwardhan Arthur Petersen Benjamin L. Preston Jesse Ribot Dale S. Rothman Vanessa J. Schweizer |
| Affiliation: | 1. NCAR, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307, USA 2. CIESIN, Palisades, NY, USA 3. University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA 4. IVM, VU University, Amsterdam, Netherlands 5. UNU-EHS, Bonn, Germany 6. SYKE, Helsinki, Finland 7. ClimAdapt LLC, Los Altos, CA, USA 8. Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia 9. SEI, Bangkok, Thailand 10. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands 11. Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands 12. Columbia University, New York, NY, USA 13. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 14. ISciences, L.L.C., Burlington, VT, USA 15. University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA 16. ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN, USA 17. University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, USA 18. University of Denver, Denver, CO, USA |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance. |
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