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A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions |
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| Authors: | Elmar Kriegler Jae Edmonds Stéphane Hallegatte Kristie L Ebi Tom Kram Keywan Riahi Harald Winkler Detlef P van Vuuren |
| Institution: | 1. Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany 2. Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA 3. The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA 4. ClimAdapt,LLC, Los Altos, CA, USA 5. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands 6. International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria 7. Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, Republic of South Africa 8. Department of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands |
| Abstract: | The new scenario framework facilitates the coupling of multiple socioeconomic reference pathways with climate model products using the representative concentration pathways. This will allow for improved assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Assumptions about climate policy play a major role in linking socioeconomic futures with forcing and climate outcomes. The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as an important element of the new scenario framework. Shared climate policy assumptions capture key policy attributes such as the goals, instruments and obstacles of mitigation and adaptation measures, and introduce an important additional dimension to the scenario matrix architecture. They can be used to improve the comparability of scenarios in the scenario matrix. Shared climate policy assumptions should be designed to be policy relevant, and as a set to be broad enough to allow a comprehensive exploration of the climate change scenario space. |
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